Seminole County Public Schools enrollment drops additional 700 students

Seminole County lost 700 more students than expected this school year, creating an additional $5.7 million budget cut the district must absorb. The state allocates funding to schools based on enrollment; when more students enroll, more money flows to public schools. When it declines, the budget gets cut, which has forced the county to make difficult choices.

The enrollment drop follows a trend of annual declines starting three years ago. Nationwide and in Seminole County, birth rates are declining, but more parents are also opting to take state education dollars and use them to send their children to private school, known as the Step Up for Students program. And fewer students from immigrant families are attending public school as federal and state immigration enforcement has kept some students at home out of fear they may be arrested, which at least one study concluded was happening in California. 

The school system may have saved itself some pain by anticipating this continued trend. “We are down some additional kids, but it’s manageable – it’s not a huge number,” SCPS Chair Robin Dehlinger said in an interview. “Because of our previous plans to hold back positions, we’re not in a bad situation where we have to let people go.” 

Those declining enrollments mean huge drops in funding. In Seminole County, running up to the 2026-27 school year, SCPS was already facing a $30 million budget shortfall. The bulk of budget cuts have come from eliminating 314 positions at Seminole County Public Schools, including 190 teachers and instructional personnel. That saved a total of $24 million for next year, but has come with controversial cuts to the band program at Lawton Chiles Middle School and has led to a Teacher of the Year being laid off. 

In Kindergarten through 12th grade in May of 2026, SCPS had 57,472 students enrolled in traditional schools and special centers. That number dropped to 55,465 in August of 2026, a steeper drop than expected. 

“We would have to come up with a plan,” Seminole County Public Schools Chief Financial Officer John Pavelchak said, about how to handle the budget cut. “The superintendent is working on a plan to ameliorate that reduction now, so nothing’s final. But she and her staff are in the process of taking care of that.” 

Pavelchak said in recent years the Family Empowerment Scholarships have come in higher than projected, while the traditional enrollment has come in lower than projected. 

The enrollment drop isn’t unique to Seminole County. Neighboring Orange County Public Schools sent a message to parents that it will have “some” layoffs because of the drop. 

“In response to the lower-than-anticipated enrollment, OCPS has recalculated school budgets and staffing formulas based on actual enrollment,” the district wrote in a message to parents. “Schools with lower-than-projected enrollment will see corresponding budget adjustments. The district will also implement an additional $8.5 million in reductions at the central office level. These reductions follow significant cost-saving measures already taken, including the elimination of more than 200 district-level positions last year and a 5% reduction in district department budgets over the past two years.”

On Tuesday, SCPS passed its property tax rate for the year and its proposed budget. 

Seminole County Public Schools set a tax rate of $523.10 per $100,000 of taxable property value, also known as the “millage rate.” Including the local supplements, the total millage for Seminole County Public Schools would be 5.223 mills, a slight drop from the year prior. 

One teacher spoke to the board, advocating that the district consider putting an optional one mill property tax increase on the ballot in 2028 to increase teacher pay. 

The largest part of the school’s tax rate, known as the “Required Local Effort,” is set by state lawmakers in Tallahassee in order to get state funding for schools. The remainder of the property taxes go to capital projects and discretionary spending. 

SCPS has a $1.4 billion budget, and has historically been the largest employer in Seminole County.

The state has cut its property tax rate every year for the last 14 years. 

“That’s a drop of 45.2 percent,” Pavelchak said. “Using current assessments, if we had that previous rate right now, we would be receiving $146.8 million more this year.”

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Abe Aboraya is a Report for America corps member